Short-Term Bias
Directional Confluence Matrix
Decisive framework: technical confluence (EMA pillars), intermarket yield-spread impulse, and institutional conviction confirmation. Full 3/3 EMA alignment plus yield-flow agreement flags high-probability directional bias.
Decisive framework
| Layer | Purpose | Deterministic value |
|---|---|---|
| Technical Confluence | Setup — trending vs ranging bias | D1/H4 50 EMA · H1/M15 20 EMA · H1 RSI checked vs core bias (not generic 40–60) |
| Intermarket Correlation | Warning — leading clue from yields | 1h US10Y−DE10Y spread rate of change |
| Yield Conviction | Confirmation — capital flow support | High only when EMA direction, yield spread impulse, and price ROC all agree · Divergence when price actively fades structure · otherwise Neutral |